Israel 2025 – Scenarios of Future Developments
It was answers to these questions that the participants in a scenario planning exercise, held from January 1999 to mid-2000, tried to find.
In 1998 Dr. Yair Hirschfeld, one of the initiators of the Oslo peace process, approached Dr. Winfried Veit, at the time head of the FES Israel office, with the proposal to carry out a scenario project in Israel, as Dr. Winfried Veit had previously done in South Africa. Israel Harel, one of the founders of the settler movement in the occupied territories, a member of the right-wing religious sector of the Israeli political spectrum who was willing to engage in dialogue could be won as co-initiator of the project.
The scenario team, consisting of twenty personalities from politics, business and society in Israel, representing different political camps, met for the first time in January 1999. The team was led by Dr. Yossi Rein, one of Israel’s leading strategic planners and an expert in scenario planning. Dirk Sadowski, research associate at FES Israel, coordinated the project.
After establishing a common knowledge basis on current demographic, economic, social, political and security-related developments, the discussion focused on the future of Israeli society. The process of reconciliation with the Arab neighbors as well as with the Arab citizens of Israel was seen as crucial for Israel. But the greatest threat to the country’s future was considered to be the tensions between different groups within Israeli society.
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A publication of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Israel, 2001
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